The Smoke forecast is provided by the Oregon Department of Forestry

 

 

SMOKE DISPERSION FORECAST:

 

Wildfire smoke dispersion depends on the stability of the atmosphere as well as wind direction and speed. A stable atmosphere holds smoke to the ground and an unstable atmosphere allows smoke to rise and dissipate. Smoke is typically mixed to higher altitudes during the afternoon, when daytime heating destabilizes the air mass. Conversely, smoke tends to settle near the ground and in drainages during the overnight and early morning hours.

 

TODAY:

 

An upper level low is moving northward today bringing clouds, showers, and thundershowers over the region. Already, moisture has moved over the fires in the SW part of the state. Showers and thundershowers will keep developing and may bring some light rain to the Government Flats Complex later this afternoon and evening. Wind flow is rather variable now but will increase from the SW to NW later this afternoon and evening. More smoke may move into The Dalles and Dufur this afternoon before wind flow turns more NW this evening.

 

FRIDAY:

 

Upper level low will “kick out” to the east overnight and early Friday leaving the region under dry SW flow aloft. Shower and thundershower activity will decrease. Brisk westerly flow will continue over the Government Flats Complex which may impact both The Dalles and Dufur. It’s possible the smoke may stay just south of The Dalles however. Most areas in SW Oregon should stay clear of any remaining smoke from fires in that area but it’s possible some smoke may move up from California and have minor impacts at higher elevation areas like Klamath Falls and Crater Lake.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

 

An upper level trough will move in closer to the state from off the coast over the weekend and early next week bringing cooler temperatures and more clouds. East of the Cascades thunderstorms could develop again. However, under the cooler environment, more humid conditions and potential showers, fire starts are less likely. Also, fire activity from current fires should be reduced and lessen smoke impacts on downwind communities.